Nigeria’s Economy Records Fastest Growth in Four Years on Rising Oil Output

Nigeria’s economy expanded at its quickest rate in four years during the second quarter, fueled by a sharp increase in crude oil production, which rose to its highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

According to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics in Abuja, gross domestic product grew by 4.2% year-on-year in the three months ending June, up from 3.1% in the previous quarter. This performance also exceeded the 3.6% forecast given by a Bloomberg poll of economists.

This marks the second GDP report since Africa’s largest oil producer revised its calculation methods, adding new industries into its assessment. The updated metrics show the oil and gas sector has shrunk in relative size, while real estate has emerged as one of the economy’s largest contributors.

The stronger-than-expected results are seen as a positive signal for President Bola Tinubu, who has rolled out reforms aimed at stimulating growth since assuming office more than two years ago. His administration has focused on curbing oil sector vandalism and introducing regulatory changes, as global energy companies shift away from onshore and shallow water operations due to persistent security risks.

The oil industry led the upturn, expanding by 20.5% in the second quarter compared with 1.9% in the previous three months. Production rose to 1.68 million barrels per day, up from 1.41 million barrels a year earlier. Industry projections suggest further momentum, with output expected to surpass 2 million barrels daily this year and remain steady through 2027. The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation has forecast production could reach 3 million barrels per day by 2030.

Meanwhile, the non-oil sector grew by 3.6% compared with 3.2% in the first quarter, supported by agriculture, information and communication services, and real estate, which continue to provide resilience to the wider economy.